Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ferlach vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Ferlach
Ferlach
CANC
21:00
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
5/9/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 24Sportplatz Ferlach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Ferlach48%
×Draw23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferlach
1.80
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.33

Ferlach creates 35% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 47 away

creates per match

Ferlach
1.79
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

Ferlach
1.46
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

Ferlach+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferlach ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ferlach or draw
72%
Ferlach or Feldkirchen Kärnten
77%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
52%

Winning margin

Ferlach wins by 2+
26%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ferlach 1+ goals
83%
Ferlach 2+ goals
54%
Ferlach 3+ goals
27%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
74%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
38%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Ferlach (draw refunded)
63%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferlach at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.46 · 92 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferlach attack 1.79 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.80

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + Ferlach defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ferlach scores more
48%
level
23%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
28%

Ferlach at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ferlach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ferlach host Feldkirchen Kärnten

May 9, 2021: Ferlach take on Feldkirchen Kärnten in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ferlach host Feldkirchen Kärnten at Sportplatz Ferlach.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.