Ferencvarosi TC 2–0 Slavia Praha: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Slavia Praha

I. Kharatin 50' (pen)

T. Kacharaba 44' (OG)

8/4/2021

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying RoundGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC57%

×Draw22%

Slavia Praha20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchSlavia Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.04

Ferencvarosi TC

1.90

Slavia Praha

1.04

Ferencvarosi TC creates 83% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

1.89

creates per match

0.45

1.63

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

1.89

Slavia Praha

0.45

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

1.63

Slavia Praha

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Slavia Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Slavia Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

80%

Ferencvarosi TC or Slavia Praha

78%

Draw or Slavia Praha

43%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

33%

Slavia Praha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

85%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

56%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

29%

Slavia Praha 1+ goals

65%

Slavia Praha 2+ goals

28%

Slavia Praha 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

74%

Slavia Praha (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Slavia Praha away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.89 + Slavia Praha defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.90

Slavia Praha attack 0.45 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

57%

level

22%

Slavia Praha scores more

20%

Ferencvarosi TC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

I. Traoré← P. Ševčík

28'

Miha Blažič

44'

T. KacharabaOwn goal

45+1'

Srđan Plavšić

46'

P. Olayinka← S. Plavšić

50'

I. KharatinPenalty

53'

P. Musa← J. Kuchta

53'

I. Schranz← L. Masopust

72'

O. Lingr← T. Holeš

75'

S. Lončar← R. Mmaee

86'

O. Zubkov← K. Zachariassen

86'

E. Botka← E. Ćivić

88'

Oscar Dorley

90+2'

A. Kovačević← T. Nguen

Statistics

FerencvarosiSlavia

Overview

1Corners7

Discipline

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0