Ferencvarosi TC 4–0 Shamrock Rovers: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Shamrock Rovers

B. Varga 74'

A. Traoré 47'

C. Ramírez 32'

D. Sigér 16'

7/27/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC61%

×Draw21%

Shamrock Rovers18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchShamrock Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

0.98

Ferencvarosi TC

2.00

Shamrock Rovers

0.98

Ferencvarosi TC creates 104% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

2.00

creates per match

1.25

0.71

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

2.00

Shamrock Rovers

1.25

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

Shamrock Rovers

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Shamrock Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Shamrock Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

82%

Ferencvarosi TC or Shamrock Rovers

79%

Draw or Shamrock Rovers

39%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

37%

Shamrock Rovers wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

86%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

59%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

32%

Shamrock Rovers 1+ goals

62%

Shamrock Rovers 2+ goals

26%

Shamrock Rovers 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

77%

Shamrock Rovers (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Shamrock Rovers away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.00 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + Shamrock Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Shamrock Rovers attack 1.25 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

61%

level

21%

Shamrock Rovers scores more

18%

Ferencvarosi TC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

A. Traoré

Ferencvarosi TC · M

9.2

Match Events

16'

32'

47'

49'

50'

57'

72'

M. Ben Romdhane← Marquinhos

72'

K. Lisztes← K. Zachariassen

74'

B. Varga

77'

A. Esiti← D. Sigér

78'

O. Kwabena← A. Traoré

79'

A. Greene← J. Kenny

79'

N. Razi← L. Burt

88'

B. Katona← B. Varga

90+2'

Anderson Esiti

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FerencvarosiShamrock

Overview

67%Possession33%

22Total Shots8

9Corners3

12Fouls4

Shots

22Total Shots8

7On Target2

4Off Target5

11Blocked1

13Inside Box5

9Outside Box3

Passing

67%Possession33%

520Total Passes263

434Accurate Passes165

83%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls4

1Yellow Cards2

4Offsides0