Ferencvarosi TC 5–0 Kaposvar: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Kaposvar

R. Varga 90+2', 85'

M. Blažič 73'

Isael 57'

F. Boli 37'

3/14/2020

League #271 · Round 15Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC78%

×Draw16%

Kaposvar5%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchKaposvar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.12

0.38

Ferencvarosi TC

2.12

Kaposvar

0.38

Ferencvarosi TC creates 458% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

2.13

creates per match

0.50

0.25

allows per match

2.10

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

2.13

Kaposvar

0.50

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

0.25

Kaposvar

2.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Kaposvar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Kaposvar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–17%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–019%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (19%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

95%

Ferencvarosi TC or Kaposvar

84%

Draw or Kaposvar

22%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

53%

Kaposvar wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

88%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

62%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

35%

Kaposvar 1+ goals

32%

Kaposvar 2+ goals

6%

Kaposvar 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

93%

Kaposvar (draw refunded)

7%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.25 · 8 matches

Kaposvar away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.13 + Kaposvar defence 2.10 → ÷2 → 2.12

Kaposvar attack 0.50 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.25 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

78%

level

16%

Kaposvar scores more

5%

Ferencvarosi TC at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

46'

48'

57'

65'

73'

76'

81'

81'

N. Signevich← F. Boli

84'

B. Vécsei← Isael

85'

R. Varga

89'

K. Nagy

90+2'

R. Varga

Ferencvarosi

Kaposvar

30

2

21

6

5

22

▼

Hegedus

16

▼

Szakály

13

Ákos

19

Pintér

66

▼

24

90

26

22

25

⚽

8

18

14

11

▼

Zubkov

88

⚽

▼

Isael

10

Nguen

70

⚽

▼

Boli

Manager: S. Rebrov

81'▲R. Varga←▼O. Zubkov

81'▲N. Signevich←▼F. Boli

84'▲B. Vécsei←▼Isael

Ferencvarosi TC substitutes

97Varga20Signevich19Vécsei99Grof21Botka27Lodico92Škvarka

Manager: L. Disztl

46'▲J. Nagy←▼A. Szakály

65'▲R. Nagy←▼D. Hegedus

76'▲Z. Balázs←▼M. Ádám

Kaposvar substitutes

8Nagy88Nagy92Balázs23Farkas11Hadaró73Laky20Kerezsi

League #271: Ferencvarosi TC 5–0 Kaposvar

Ferencvarosi TC beat Kaposvar 5-0 in League #271 on March 14, 2020.

Goals: F. Boli (37'), Isael (57'), M. Blažič (73'), R. Varga (85', 90+2').

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.

Ferencvarosi TC vs Kaposvar — League #271 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #271: Ferencvarosi TC 5–0 Kaposvar