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Ferencvarosi TC vs BSC Young Boys — UEFA Champions League 2026

Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
BSC Young Boys
BSC Young Boys
R. Mmaee 27'
H. Wingo 18'
F. Mambimbi 90+3'
C. Fassnacht 56'
C. Zesiger 4'
8/24/2021UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Play-offsGroupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC50%
×Draw24%
BSC Young Boys26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencvarosi TC
1.73
BSC Young Boys
1.19

Ferencvarosi TC creates 45% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC
1.89
BSC Young Boys
0.75

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC
1.63
BSC Young Boys
1.58

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par
BSC Young Boys+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

BSC Young Boys →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw
74%
Ferencvarosi TC or BSC Young Boys
76%
Draw or BSC Young Boys
50%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
27%
BSC Young Boys wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
82%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
52%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
25%
BSC Young Boys 1+ goals
70%
BSC Young Boys 2+ goals
33%
BSC Young Boys 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
65%
BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 1.89 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.73

BSC Young Boys attack 0.75 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more
50%
level
24%
BSC Young Boys scores more
26%

Ferencvarosi TC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77
M. UzuniFerencvarosi TCFerencvarosi TC · M
7.5

Match Events

4'
C. Zesiger↳ V. Sierro
18'
H. Wingo
27'
R. Mmaee↳ M. Uzuni
30'
Kristoffer Zachariassen
56'
C. Fassnacht↳ M. Elia
59'
Aissa Laïdouni
62'
M. Aebischer← V. Sierro
64'
Aissa Laïdouni
64'
Aissa Laïdouni
66'
Adnan Kovačević
66'
Christopher Martins Pereira
70'
Henry Wingo
71'
O. Zubkov← F. Boli
76'
S. Lončar← K. Zachariassen
81'
Ryan Mmaee
85'
F. Mambimbi← J. Siebatcheu
85'
S. Lauper← M. Elia
86'
R. Mak← Somália
90+3'
F. Mambimbi↳ M. Ngamaleu

Possession

52%Ferencvarosi

Shots

6Ferencvarosi

Pass accuracy

51%Ferencvarosi

Statistics

FerencvarosiBSC
Overview
52%Possession48%
6Total Shots16
4Corners4
18Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots16
3On Target5
2Off Target8
1Blocked3
5Inside Box11
1Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
423Total Passes399
341Accurate Passes316
81%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
18Fouls18
6Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
0Offsides4

Match Recap: Ferencvarosi TC vs BSC Young Boys

BSC Young Boys beat Ferencvarosi TC 3-2 in UEFA Champions League on August 24, 2021.

Goals: C. Zesiger (4'), H. Wingo (18'), R. Mmaee (27'), C. Fassnacht (56'), F. Mambimbi (90+3').

Ferencvarosi TC controlled possession (52%) and registered 6 shots to 16.

The match was played at Groupama Aréna in Budapest.