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Ferencváros II vs Paksi SE II — NB III - Southwest 2019

Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Paksi SE II
Paksi SE II
5/26/2024NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 30FTC Utánpótlás Centrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ferencváros II60%
×Draw21%
Paksi SE II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencváros II
2.12
Paksi SE II
1.13

Ferencváros II creates 88% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ferencváros II
2.27
Paksi SE II
1.36

allows per match

Ferencváros II
0.89
Paksi SE II
1.96

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par
Paksi SE II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Paksi SE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw
80%
Ferencváros II or Paksi SE II
79%
Draw or Paksi SE II
40%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+
37%
Paksi SE II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals
88%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
62%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
35%
Paksi SE II 1+ goals
68%
Paksi SE II 2+ goals
31%
Paksi SE II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
75%
Paksi SE II (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Paksi SE II away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.96 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + Paksi SE II defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.12

Paksi SE II attack 1.36 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ferencváros II scores more
60%
level
21%
Paksi SE II scores more
20%

Ferencváros II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencváros II vs Paksi SE II

Ferencváros II beat Paksi SE II 4-0 in NB III - Southwest on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at FTC Utánpótlás Centrum in Budapest.