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Ferencváros II vs Nagykanizsai ULE — NB III - Southwest 2019

Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Nagykanizsai ULE
Nagykanizsai ULE
11/5/2023NB III - SouthwestNB III - Southwest · Southwest - 14Bihari úti Sportpálya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ferencváros II47%
×Draw23%
Nagykanizsai ULE30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencváros II
1.81
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.42

Ferencváros II creates 27% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 111 away

creates per match

Ferencváros II
2.27
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.95

allows per match

Ferencváros II
0.89
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.36

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par
Nagykanizsai ULE+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Nagykanizsai ULE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw
70%
Ferencváros II or Nagykanizsai ULE
77%
Draw or Nagykanizsai ULE
53%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+
25%
Nagykanizsai ULE wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals
84%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
54%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
27%
Nagykanizsai ULE 1+ goals
76%
Nagykanizsai ULE 2+ goals
41%
Nagykanizsai ULE 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
61%
Nagykanizsai ULE (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.89 · 45 matches

Nagykanizsai ULE away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 2.27 + Nagykanizsai ULE defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.81

Nagykanizsai ULE attack 1.95 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ferencváros II scores more
47%
level
23%
Nagykanizsai ULE scores more
30%

Ferencváros II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencváros II vs Nagykanizsai ULE

Ferencváros II beat Nagykanizsai ULE 1-0 in NB III - Southwest on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Bihari úti Sportpálya in Budapest.