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Ferencváros II vs Kecskeméti TE II — NB III - Northwest 2019

Ferencváros II
Ferencváros II
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Kecskeméti TE II
Kecskeméti TE II
8/31/2022NB III - NorthwestNB III - Northwest · Közép - 6FTC Népligeti Sportcentrum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ferencváros II60%
×Draw21%
Kecskeméti TE II19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferencváros II
2.03
Kecskeméti TE II
1.03

Ferencváros II creates 97% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 17 away

creates per match

Ferencváros II
1.82
Kecskeméti TE II
1.18

allows per match

Ferencváros II
0.89
Kecskeméti TE II
2.24

finishing

Ferencváros II+0.00on par
Kecskeméti TE II+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencváros II ↓

Kecskeméti TE II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Ferencváros II or draw
81%
Ferencváros II or Kecskeméti TE II
79%
Draw or Kecskeméti TE II
40%

Winning margin

Ferencváros II wins by 2+
37%
Kecskeméti TE II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ferencváros II 1+ goals
87%
Ferencváros II 2+ goals
60%
Ferencváros II 3+ goals
33%
Kecskeméti TE II 1+ goals
64%
Kecskeméti TE II 2+ goals
28%
Kecskeméti TE II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ferencváros II (draw refunded)
76%
Kecskeméti TE II (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencváros II at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.89 · 55 matches

Kecskeméti TE II away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencváros II attack 1.82 + Kecskeméti TE II defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.03

Kecskeméti TE II attack 1.18 + Ferencváros II defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ferencváros II scores more
60%
level
21%
Kecskeméti TE II scores more
19%

Ferencváros II at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ferencváros II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferencváros II vs Kecskeméti TE II

Kecskeméti TE II beat Ferencváros II 2-1 in NB III - Northwest on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at FTC Népligeti Sportcentrum in Budapest.