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Feralpisalo vs Brescia — Serie B 2018

Feralpisalo
Feralpisalo
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Brescia
Brescia
5/1/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Leonardo Garilli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Feralpisalo33%
×Draw25%
Brescia41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feralpisalo
1.30
Brescia
1.48

Brescia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 116 away

creates per match

Feralpisalo
1.32
Brescia
1.18

allows per match

Feralpisalo
1.79
Brescia
1.28

finishing

Feralpisalo+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feralpisalo ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Feralpisalo or draw
59%
Feralpisalo or Brescia
75%
Draw or Brescia
67%

Winning margin

Feralpisalo wins by 2+
15%
Brescia wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Feralpisalo 1+ goals
73%
Feralpisalo 2+ goals
37%
Feralpisalo 3+ goals
14%
Brescia 1+ goals
77%
Brescia 2+ goals
43%
Brescia 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Feralpisalo (draw refunded)
45%
Brescia (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feralpisalo at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.79 · 19 matches

Brescia away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.28 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feralpisalo attack 1.32 + Brescia defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.30

Brescia attack 1.18 + Feralpisalo defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feralpisalo scores more
33%
level
25%
Brescia scores more
41%

Brescia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Brescia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie B: Feralpisalo 2–2 Brescia

Feralpisalo and Brescia drew 2-2 in Serie B on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Piacenza.