FeralpiSalò U19 2–2 Reggiana U19: Result & Stats

FeralpiSalò U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Reggiana U19

11/2/2024

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 7Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

FeralpiSalò U1948%

×Draw23%

Reggiana U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeralpiSalò U19Expected goals in this matchReggiana U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.39

FeralpiSalò U19

1.82

Reggiana U19

1.39

FeralpiSalò U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 86 away

1.35

creates per match

1.06

1.72

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

FeralpiSalò U19

1.35

Reggiana U19

1.06

allows per match

FeralpiSalò U19

1.72

Reggiana U19

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Reggiana U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FeralpiSalò U19 ↓

Reggiana U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

FeralpiSalò U19 or draw

70%

FeralpiSalò U19 or Reggiana U19

77%

Draw or Reggiana U19

52%

Winning margin

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+

26%

Reggiana U19 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals

84%

FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals

54%

FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals

27%

Reggiana U19 1+ goals

75%

Reggiana U19 2+ goals

40%

Reggiana U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Reggiana U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FeralpiSalò U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

Reggiana U19 away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 1.35 + Reggiana U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.82

Reggiana U19 attack 1.06 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more

48%

level

23%

Reggiana U19 scores more

30%

FeralpiSalò U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FeralpiSalò U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff