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FeralpiSalò U19 vs Padova U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

FeralpiSalò U19
FeralpiSalò U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Padova U19
Padova U19
11/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 9Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

FeralpiSalò U1942%
×Draw25%
Padova U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FeralpiSalò U19
1.54
Padova U19
1.35

FeralpiSalò U19 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 61 away

creates per match

FeralpiSalò U19
1.35
Padova U19
0.98

allows per match

FeralpiSalò U19
1.72
Padova U19
1.74

finishing

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par
Padova U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FeralpiSalò U19 ↓

Padova U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FeralpiSalò U19 or draw
67%
FeralpiSalò U19 or Padova U19
75%
Draw or Padova U19
58%

Winning margin

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+
21%
Padova U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals
79%
FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals
45%
FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals
20%
Padova U19 1+ goals
74%
Padova U19 2+ goals
39%
Padova U19 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)
56%
Padova U19 (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FeralpiSalò U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

Padova U19 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.74 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 1.35 + Padova U19 defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.54

Padova U19 attack 0.98 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more
42%
level
25%
Padova U19 scores more
33%

FeralpiSalò U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "FeralpiSalò U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 2: FeralpiSalò U19 1–2 Padova U19

Padova U19 beat FeralpiSalò U19 2-1 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.