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FeralpiSalò U19 vs Como U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

FeralpiSalò U19
FeralpiSalò U19
FT
3 – 4
Como U19
Como U19
2/25/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 20Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

FeralpiSalò U1927%
×Draw22%
Como U1950%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FeralpiSalò U19
1.34
Como U19
1.90

Como U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

creates per match

FeralpiSalò U19
1.35
Como U19
2.08

allows per match

FeralpiSalò U19
1.72
Como U19
1.33

finishing

FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par
Como U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FeralpiSalò U19 ↓

Como U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

FeralpiSalò U19 or draw
50%
FeralpiSalò U19 or Como U19
78%
Draw or Como U19
73%

Winning margin

FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+
12%
Como U19 wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals
74%
FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals
39%
FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals
15%
Como U19 1+ goals
85%
Como U19 2+ goals
56%
Como U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)
35%
Como U19 (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FeralpiSalò U19 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

Como U19 away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 1.35 + Como U19 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Como U19 attack 2.08 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

FeralpiSalò U19 scores more
27%
level
22%
Como U19 scores more
50%

Como U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Como U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FeralpiSalò U19 vs Como U19

Como U19 beat FeralpiSalò U19 4-3 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Centro Sportivo Mario Rigamonti in Brescia.