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Fénix vs Los Andes — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Fénix
Fénix
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Los Andes
Los Andes
9/19/2022Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 15Estadio José Manuel Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Fénix31%
×Draw31%
Los Andes38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fénix
0.91
Los Andes
1.03

Los Andes creates 13% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 98 away

creates per match

Fénix
0.79
Los Andes
0.85

allows per match

Fénix
1.22
Los Andes
1.02

finishing

Fénix+0.00on par
Los Andes+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fénix ↓

Los Andes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Fénix or draw
62%
Fénix or Los Andes
69%
Draw or Los Andes
69%

Winning margin

Fénix wins by 2+
11%
Los Andes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fénix 1+ goals
60%
Fénix 2+ goals
23%
Fénix 3+ goals
6%
Los Andes 1+ goals
64%
Los Andes 2+ goals
28%
Los Andes 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fénix (draw refunded)
45%
Los Andes (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fénix at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.22 · 125 matches

Los Andes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.02 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fénix attack 0.79 + Los Andes defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.91

Los Andes attack 0.85 + Fénix defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fénix scores more
31%
level
31%
Los Andes scores more
38%

Los Andes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Los Andes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Fénix 0–3 Los Andes

Los Andes beat Fénix 3-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on September 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio José Manuel Moreno in Parque San Martín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.