Fenix 0–0 CA River Plate: Result & Stats

Fenix

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

CA River Plate

4/8/2023

Primera División - Apertura · Apertura - 10Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Fenix44%

×Draw28%

CA River Plate28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenixExpected goals in this matchCA River Plate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.02

Fenix

1.34

CA River Plate

1.02

Fenix creates 31% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

1.20

creates per match

0.92

1.12

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Fenix

1.20

CA River Plate

0.92

allows per match

Fenix

1.12

CA River Plate

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenix+0.00on par

CA River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenix ↓

CA River Plate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Fenix or draw

72%

Fenix or CA River Plate

72%

Draw or CA River Plate

56%

Winning margin

Fenix wins by 2+

20%

CA River Plate wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Fenix 1+ goals

74%

Fenix 2+ goals

39%

Fenix 3+ goals

15%

CA River Plate 1+ goals

64%

CA River Plate 2+ goals

27%

CA River Plate 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Fenix (draw refunded)

61%

CA River Plate (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenix at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 60 matches

CA River Plate away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.48 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenix attack 1.20 + CA River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.34

CA River Plate attack 0.92 + Fenix defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fenix scores more

44%

level

28%

CA River Plate scores more

28%

Fenix at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff