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Fenix vs Artigas — Segunda División 2025

Fenix
Fenix
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Artigas
Artigas
F. Milan 90+3'
G. Pereira 69' (OG)
N. Leites 45+3'
M. Nunez 16'
8/16/2025Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · 2nd Phase - 15Parque Capurro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fenix42%
×Draw26%
Artigas32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenix
1.46
Artigas
1.24

Fenix creates 18% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Fenix
1.40
Artigas
1.20

allows per match

Fenix
1.28
Artigas
1.53

finishing

Fenix+0.00on par
Artigas+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenix ↓

Artigas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Fenix or draw
68%
Fenix or Artigas
74%
Draw or Artigas
58%

Winning margin

Fenix wins by 2+
20%
Artigas wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fenix 1+ goals
77%
Fenix 2+ goals
43%
Fenix 3+ goals
18%
Artigas 1+ goals
71%
Artigas 2+ goals
35%
Artigas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fenix (draw refunded)
57%
Artigas (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenix at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.28 · 25 matches

Artigas away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenix attack 1.40 + Artigas defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Artigas attack 1.20 + Fenix defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fenix scores more
42%
level
26%
Artigas scores more
32%

Fenix at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fenix will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
M. Nunez
45+3'
N. Leites
69'
G. PereiraOwn goal
90+3'
F. Milan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenix vs Artigas

Artigas beat Fenix 3-1 in Segunda División on August 16, 2025.

Goals: M. Nunez (16'), N. Leites (45+3'), G. Pereira (69' o.g.), F. Milan (90+3').

The match was played at Parque Capurro in Montevideo.