Fénix vs Argentino de Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 74+ matches
Fénix30%
Argentino de Merlo39%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Argentino de Merlo creates 20% more chances
Season form · 136 home / 74 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under68
- Over32
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fénix ↓
Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fénix at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.23 · 136 matches
Argentino de Merlo away — creates 0.95, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fénix attack 0.82 + Argentino de Merlo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91
Argentino de Merlo attack 0.95 + Fénix defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.09
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
Argentino de Merlo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "Argentino de Merlo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Fénix substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Deportivo Laferrere
Sportivo Italiano
Deportivo Camioneros
Arsenal Sarandi
Villa Dalmine
Talleres Remedios
Dock Sud
Comunicaciones
Deportivo ArmenioArgentino de Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
Real Pilar
Excursionistas
Flandria
Villa San Carlos
Argentino Quilmes
Liniers
Brown DE Adrogue
Defensores Unidos
UAI Urquiza
ItuzaingóIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fénix host Argentino de Merlo on Monday, 10 July 2023 at 18:30. The match is part of the Primera B Metropolitana 2026/2027 season.
Primera B Metropolitana: Fénix 1–2 Argentino de Merlo
Argentino de Merlo beat Fénix 2-1 in Primera B Metropolitana on July 10, 2023.
Goals: B. Hernández (21'), E. Cohen (43'), T. Pavone (46').
The match was played at Estadio Tres de Febrero in Tres de Febrero, Provincia de Buenos Aires.