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Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ümraniyespor
Ümraniyespor
1/24/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 8th FinalsÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Fenerbahçe66%
×Draw20%
Ümraniyespor14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
2.02
Ümraniyespor
0.78

Fenerbahçe creates 159% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.25
Ümraniyespor
0.90

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
0.65
Ümraniyespor
1.80

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Ümraniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Ümraniyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
86%
Fenerbahçe or Ümraniyespor
80%
Draw or Ümraniyespor
34%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
41%
Ümraniyespor wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
87%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
60%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
33%
Ümraniyespor 1+ goals
54%
Ümraniyespor 2+ goals
18%
Ümraniyespor 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
83%
Ümraniyespor (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Ümraniyespor away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Ümraniyespor defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.02

Ümraniyespor attack 0.90 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
66%
level
20%
Ümraniyespor scores more
14%

Fenerbahçe at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Ümraniyespor

Ümraniyespor beat Fenerbahçe 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on January 24, 2019.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.