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Fenerbahçe vs Karacabey Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Karacabey Belediyespor
Karacabey Belediyespor
12/16/2020Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fenerbahçe46%
×Draw24%
Karacabey Belediyespor30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
1.63
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.26

Fenerbahçe creates 29% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.25
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.88

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
0.65
Karacabey Belediyespor
1.00

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Karacabey Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Karacabey Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
70%
Fenerbahçe or Karacabey Belediyespor
76%
Draw or Karacabey Belediyespor
54%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
24%
Karacabey Belediyespor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
80%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
48%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
22%
Karacabey Belediyespor 1+ goals
72%
Karacabey Belediyespor 2+ goals
36%
Karacabey Belediyespor 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
61%
Karacabey Belediyespor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Karacabey Belediyespor away — creates 1.88, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Karacabey Belediyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Karacabey Belediyespor attack 1.88 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
46%
level
24%
Karacabey Belediyespor scores more
30%

Fenerbahçe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fenerbahçe 1 – 0 Karacabey Belediyespor

Fenerbahçe beat Karacabey Belediyespor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 16, 2020.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.