Fenerbahçe 4–0 İstanbulspor: Result & Stats

Fenerbahçe

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

İstanbulspor

12/3/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Fenerbahçe68%

×Draw19%

İstanbulspor13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FenerbahçeExpected goals in this matchİstanbulspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

0.82

Fenerbahçe

2.19

İstanbulspor

0.82

Fenerbahçe creates 167% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 8 away

2.25

creates per match

1.00

0.65

allows per match

2.13

creates per match

Fenerbahçe

2.25

İstanbulspor

1.00

allows per match

Fenerbahçe

0.65

İstanbulspor

2.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par

İstanbulspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

İstanbulspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw

87%

Fenerbahçe or İstanbulspor

81%

Draw or İstanbulspor

32%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+

44%

İstanbulspor wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals

89%

Fenerbahçe 2+ goals

64%

Fenerbahçe 3+ goals

37%

İstanbulspor 1+ goals

56%

İstanbulspor 2+ goals

20%

İstanbulspor 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)

84%

İstanbulspor (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

İstanbulspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + İstanbulspor defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.19

İstanbulspor attack 1.00 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more

68%

level

19%

İstanbulspor scores more

13%

Fenerbahçe at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor

Fenerbahçe beat İstanbulspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.

Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs İstanbulspor