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Fenerbahçe vs Afjet Afyonspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Fenerbahçe
Fenerbahçe
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Afjet Afyonspor
Afjet Afyonspor
12/29/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 5th RoundÜlker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fenerbahçe80%
×Draw12%
Afjet Afyonspor7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fenerbahçe
3.00
Afjet Afyonspor
0.82

Fenerbahçe creates 266% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 4 away

creates per match

Fenerbahçe
2.25
Afjet Afyonspor
1.00

allows per match

Fenerbahçe
0.65
Afjet Afyonspor
3.75

finishing

Fenerbahçe+0.00on par
Afjet Afyonspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fenerbahçe ↓

Afjet Afyonspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Fenerbahçe or draw
93%
Fenerbahçe or Afjet Afyonspor
88%
Draw or Afjet Afyonspor
20%

Winning margin

Fenerbahçe wins by 2+
61%
Afjet Afyonspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fenerbahçe 1+ goals
95%
Fenerbahçe 2+ goals
79%
Fenerbahçe 3+ goals
56%
Afjet Afyonspor 1+ goals
56%
Afjet Afyonspor 2+ goals
20%
Afjet Afyonspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Fenerbahçe (draw refunded)
92%
Afjet Afyonspor (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fenerbahçe at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.65 · 20 matches

Afjet Afyonspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fenerbahçe attack 2.25 + Afjet Afyonspor defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.00

Afjet Afyonspor attack 1.00 + Fenerbahçe defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Fenerbahçe scores more
80%
level
12%
Afjet Afyonspor scores more
7%

Fenerbahçe at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Fenerbahçe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fenerbahçe vs Afjet Afyonspor

Fenerbahçe and Afjet Afyonspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Ülker Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi in İstanbul.