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Fellbach vs Reutlingen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
0 – 6
HT: 0 – 4
Reutlingen
Reutlingen
L. Plattenhardt 79'
L. Vochatzer 58', 44'
K. Markopoulos 37', 37'
Y. Toth 27'
5/31/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 34Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach29%
×Draw23%
Reutlingen48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.40
Reutlingen
1.86

Reutlingen creates 33% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
Reutlingen
1.54

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
Reutlingen
1.98

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
Reutlingen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

Reutlingen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
52%
Fellbach or Reutlingen
77%
Draw or Reutlingen
71%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
13%
Reutlingen wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
75%
Fellbach 2+ goals
41%
Fellbach 3+ goals
17%
Reutlingen 1+ goals
84%
Reutlingen 2+ goals
55%
Reutlingen 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
38%
Reutlingen (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Reutlingen away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.98 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + Reutlingen defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.40

Reutlingen attack 1.54 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Fellbach scores more
29%
level
23%
Reutlingen scores more
48%

Reutlingen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Reutlingen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
Y. Toth
37'
K. Markopoulos
37'
K. Markopoulos
44'
L. Vochatzer
58'
L. Vochatzer
79'
L. Plattenhardt

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs Reutlingen

Reutlingen beat Fellbach 6-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on May 31, 2025.

Goals: Y. Toth (27'), K. Markopoulos (37', 37'), L. Vochatzer (44', 58'), L. Plattenhardt (79').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach in Fellbach.