Fellbach 0–1 Oberachern: Result & Stats

Fellbach

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Oberachern

N. Recht 19'

4/5/2025

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 26Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach28%

×Draw23%

Oberachern49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FellbachExpected goals in this matchOberachern

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.78

Fellbach

1.28

Oberachern

1.78

Oberachern creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 92 away

0.82

creates per match

1.38

2.18

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Fellbach

0.82

Oberachern

1.38

allows per match

Fellbach

2.18

Oberachern

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par

Oberachern+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

Oberachern →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw

51%

Fellbach or Oberachern

77%

Draw or Oberachern

72%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+

12%

Oberachern wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals

72%

Fellbach 2+ goals

37%

Fellbach 3+ goals

14%

Oberachern 1+ goals

83%

Oberachern 2+ goals

53%

Oberachern 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)

36%

Oberachern (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Oberachern away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.74 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + Oberachern defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oberachern attack 1.38 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fellbach scores more

28%

level

23%

Oberachern scores more

49%

Oberachern at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Oberachern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

N. Recht

70'

T. Hohloch

90+5'

I. Njie

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff