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Fellbach vs Normannia Gmünd — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Normannia Gmünd
Normannia Gmünd
M. Sanyang 49'
11/29/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 19Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach28%
×Draw23%
Normannia Gmünd49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.27
Normannia Gmünd
1.76

Normannia Gmünd creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
Normannia Gmünd
1.33

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
Normannia Gmünd
1.73

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
Normannia Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

Normannia Gmünd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
51%
Fellbach or Normannia Gmünd
77%
Draw or Normannia Gmünd
72%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
12%
Normannia Gmünd wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
72%
Fellbach 2+ goals
36%
Fellbach 3+ goals
14%
Normannia Gmünd 1+ goals
83%
Normannia Gmünd 2+ goals
52%
Normannia Gmünd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
36%
Normannia Gmünd (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

Normannia Gmünd away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.73 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + Normannia Gmünd defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Normannia Gmünd attack 1.33 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Fellbach scores more
28%
level
23%
Normannia Gmünd scores more
49%

Normannia Gmünd at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Normannia Gmünd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'
M. Sanyang

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs Normannia Gmünd

Fellbach beat Normannia Gmünd 1-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on November 29, 2024.

Goals: M. Sanyang (49').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach in Fellbach.