Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fellbach vs FV Ravensburg — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
0 – 2
FV Ravensburg
FV Ravensburg
8/30/2024Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 5Max-Graser-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach28%
×Draw23%
FV Ravensburg50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.31
FV Ravensburg
1.83

FV Ravensburg creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
FV Ravensburg
1.49

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
FV Ravensburg
1.81

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
FV Ravensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

FV Ravensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
50%
Fellbach or FV Ravensburg
77%
Draw or FV Ravensburg
72%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
12%
FV Ravensburg wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
73%
Fellbach 2+ goals
38%
Fellbach 3+ goals
14%
FV Ravensburg 1+ goals
84%
FV Ravensburg 2+ goals
54%
FV Ravensburg 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
36%
FV Ravensburg (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

FV Ravensburg away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.81 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + FV Ravensburg defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.31

FV Ravensburg attack 1.49 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Fellbach scores more
28%
level
23%
FV Ravensburg scores more
50%

FV Ravensburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "FV Ravensburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Fellbach 0–2 FV Ravensburg

FV Ravensburg beat Fellbach 2-0 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on August 30, 2024.

The match was played at Max-Graser-Stadion in Fellbach.