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Fellbach vs CFR Pforzheim — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Fellbach
Fellbach
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
CFR Pforzheim
CFR Pforzheim
T. Hohloch 30'
T. Schwaiger 20' (pen)
N. Hofmeister 5'
3/29/2025Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 25Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Fellbach23%
×Draw22%
CFR Pforzheim55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fellbach
1.18
CFR Pforzheim
1.95

CFR Pforzheim creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fellbach
0.82
CFR Pforzheim
1.71

allows per match

Fellbach
2.18
CFR Pforzheim
1.53

finishing

Fellbach+0.00on par
CFR Pforzheim+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fellbach ↓

CFR Pforzheim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Fellbach or draw
45%
Fellbach or CFR Pforzheim
78%
Draw or CFR Pforzheim
77%

Winning margin

Fellbach wins by 2+
9%
CFR Pforzheim wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Fellbach 1+ goals
69%
Fellbach 2+ goals
33%
Fellbach 3+ goals
12%
CFR Pforzheim 1+ goals
86%
CFR Pforzheim 2+ goals
58%
CFR Pforzheim 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Fellbach (draw refunded)
29%
CFR Pforzheim (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fellbach at home — creates 0.82, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

CFR Pforzheim away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.53 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fellbach attack 0.82 + CFR Pforzheim defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.18

CFR Pforzheim attack 1.71 + Fellbach defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Fellbach scores more
23%
level
22%
CFR Pforzheim scores more
55%

CFR Pforzheim at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "CFR Pforzheim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
N. Hofmeister
20'
T. SchwaigerPenalty
30'
T. Hohloch

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fellbach vs CFR Pforzheim

CFR Pforzheim beat Fellbach 2-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 29, 2025.

Goals: N. Hofmeister (5'), T. Schwaiger (20' pen), T. Hohloch (30').

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz 1 Fellbach in Fellbach.