Felgueiras 1932 2–0 Varzim: Result & Stats | Liga 3

Felgueiras 1932

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Varzim

1/20/2023

Liga 3 · Round 15Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Felgueiras 193249%

×Draw28%

Varzim23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felgueiras 1932Expected goals in this matchVarzim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.84

Felgueiras 1932

1.35

Varzim

0.84

Felgueiras 1932 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 62 away

1.48

creates per match

0.92

0.77

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932

1.48

Varzim

0.92

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932

0.77

Varzim

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Varzim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Varzim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw

77%

Felgueiras 1932 or Varzim

72%

Draw or Varzim

51%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

23%

Varzim wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

74%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

39%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

15%

Varzim 1+ goals

57%

Varzim 2+ goals

21%

Varzim 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

68%

Varzim (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Varzim away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.23 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.48 + Varzim defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.35

Varzim attack 0.92 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

49%

level

28%

Varzim scores more

23%

Felgueiras 1932 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff