Felgueiras 1932 2–1 Valadares Gaia: Result & Stats

Felgueiras 1932

FT

2 – 1

Valadares Gaia

T. Fonseca 90+4'

Clayton 52'

A. Tanko 74'

10/28/2020

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Felgueiras 193256%

×Draw22%

Valadares Gaia22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felgueiras 1932Expected goals in this matchValadares Gaia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.09

Felgueiras 1932

1.90

Valadares Gaia

1.09

Felgueiras 1932 creates 74% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.46

creates per match

1.33

0.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932

2.46

Valadares Gaia

1.33

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932

0.85

Valadares Gaia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Valadares Gaia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Valadares Gaia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw

78%

Felgueiras 1932 or Valadares Gaia

78%

Draw or Valadares Gaia

44%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

33%

Valadares Gaia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

85%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

56%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

29%

Valadares Gaia 1+ goals

66%

Valadares Gaia 2+ goals

30%

Valadares Gaia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

72%

Valadares Gaia (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Valadares Gaia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.46 + Valadares Gaia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.90

Valadares Gaia attack 1.33 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

56%

level

22%

Valadares Gaia scores more

22%

Felgueiras 1932 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Clayton

74'

A. Tanko

90+4'

T. Fonseca

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff