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Felgueiras 1932 vs Os Limianos — Taça de Portugal 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Os Limianos
Os Limianos
9/24/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Felgueiras 193259%
×Draw19%
Os Limianos22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
2.40
Os Limianos
1.43

Felgueiras 1932 creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
2.46
Os Limianos
2.00

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.85
Os Limianos
2.33

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Os Limianos+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Os Limianos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
78%
Felgueiras 1932 or Os Limianos
81%
Draw or Os Limianos
41%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
37%
Os Limianos wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
91%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
69%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
42%
Os Limianos 1+ goals
76%
Os Limianos 2+ goals
42%
Os Limianos 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
73%
Os Limianos (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Os Limianos away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.46 + Os Limianos defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Os Limianos attack 2.00 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
59%
level
19%
Os Limianos scores more
22%

Felgueiras 1932 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Os Limianos

Felgueiras 1932 beat Os Limianos 4-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.