Felgueiras 1932 2–0 Joane: Result & Stats

Felgueiras 1932

2 – 0

Joane

9/30/2018

Taça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos (Felgueiras)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Felgueiras 193263%

×Draw20%

Joane18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Felgueiras 1932Expected goals in this matchJoane

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

1.09

Felgueiras 1932

2.23

Joane

1.09

Felgueiras 1932 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 3 away

2.46

creates per match

1.33

0.85

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932

2.46

Joane

1.33

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932

0.85

Joane

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Joane+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Joane →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw

82%

Felgueiras 1932 or Joane

80%

Draw or Joane

37%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+

40%

Joane wins by 2+

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals

89%

Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals

65%

Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals

38%

Joane 1+ goals

66%

Joane 2+ goals

30%

Joane 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)

78%

Joane (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Joane away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.46 + Joane defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Joane attack 1.33 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more

63%

level

20%

Joane scores more

18%

Felgueiras 1932 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff