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Felgueiras 1932 vs Feirense — Segunda Liga 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Feirense
Feirense
8/24/2024Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 3Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Felgueiras 193239%
×Draw29%
Feirense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.16
Feirense
1.02

Felgueiras 1932 creates 14% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 111 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Feirense
1.08

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.97
Feirense
1.20

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Feirense+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Feirense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
68%
Felgueiras 1932 or Feirense
71%
Draw or Feirense
61%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
16%
Feirense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
69%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
32%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
11%
Feirense 1+ goals
64%
Feirense 2+ goals
27%
Feirense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
55%
Feirense (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Feirense away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.12 + Feirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.16

Feirense attack 1.08 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
39%
level
29%
Feirense scores more
32%

Felgueiras 1932 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Afonso Silva
46'
J. Bonilla← Afonso Silva
47'
Julián Bonilla
57'
Henrique Jocú← N. John
57'
João Castro← Jorge Pereira
63'
Stivan Petkov
63'
Berna← Feliz Vaz
63'
Leandro Antunes← S. Petkov
69'
João Santos← Gabi Pereira
75'
Hélder Sá← Rúben Alves
75'
J. Saint-Louis← Bruno Silva
83'
Pedro Rosas← E. Banguera
83'
Bruninho← Léo Teixeira
90+2'
Helder Sá

Statistics

FelgueirasFeirense
Discipline
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Feirense

Felgueiras 1932 and Feirense drew 0-0 in Segunda Liga on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.