Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Felgueiras 1932 vs Farense — Segunda Liga 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Farense
Farense
V. Moreira 55' (pen)
Claudio Falcao 85'
11/16/2025Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 9Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Felgueiras 193238%
×Draw30%
Farense32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Farense
1.00

Felgueiras 1932 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 76 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Farense
1.04

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.97
Farense
1.11

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
68%
Felgueiras 1932 or Farense
70%
Draw or Farense
62%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
16%
Farense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
67%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
31%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
10%
Farense 1+ goals
63%
Farense 2+ goals
26%
Farense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
54%
Farense (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.97 · 34 matches

Farense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.12 + Farense defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.12

Farense attack 1.04 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
38%
level
30%
Farense scores more
32%

Felgueiras 1932 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
L. Santos Teixeira← M. Rivas
46'
Geovanny← R. Costa
46'
D. Dorregaray← M. Menino
51'
Balla Sangaré
55'
V. MoreiraPenalty
57'
Cristiano Pereira
64'
Jaiminho← Y. Semedo
70'
D. Poveda← B. Sangare
77'
M. Matias← A. Candeias
81'
A. Zangre← V. Moreira
85'
Claudio Falcao↳ Derick Poloni
87'
Rivaldo
87'
M. Jean-Marie← Gabi

Statistics

FelgueirasFarense
Discipline
1Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Farense

Felgueiras 1932 and Farense drew 1-1 in Segunda Liga on November 16, 2025.

Goals: V. Moreira (55' pen), Claudio Falcao (85').

The match was played at Stadion Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.