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Felgueiras 1932 vs Arouca — Taça de Portugal 2018

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Arouca
Arouca
10/21/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundEstádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Felgueiras 193240%
×Draw22%
Arouca37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.77
Arouca
1.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
2.46
Arouca
2.54

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.85
Arouca
1.08

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Arouca+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Arouca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
63%
Felgueiras 1932 or Arouca
78%
Draw or Arouca
60%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
21%
Arouca wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
83%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
53%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
26%
Arouca 1+ goals
82%
Arouca 2+ goals
51%
Arouca 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
52%
Arouca (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

Arouca away — creates 2.54, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 2.46 + Arouca defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.77

Arouca attack 2.54 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
40%
level
22%
Arouca scores more
37%

Felgueiras 1932 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Arouca

Arouca beat Felgueiras 1932 3-1 in Taça de Portugal on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.