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Felgueiras 1932 vs Alverca — Liga 3 2021

Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Alverca
Alverca
2/24/2024Liga 3Liga 3 · Promotion Group - 3Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Felgueiras 193243%
×Draw27%
Alverca29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felgueiras 1932
1.36
Alverca
1.07

Felgueiras 1932 creates 27% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 45 away

creates per match

Felgueiras 1932
1.48
Alverca
1.38

allows per match

Felgueiras 1932
0.77
Alverca
1.24

finishing

Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par
Alverca+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felgueiras 1932 ↓

Alverca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Felgueiras 1932 or draw
71%
Felgueiras 1932 or Alverca
73%
Draw or Alverca
57%

Winning margin

Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
20%
Alverca wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
74%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
39%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
16%
Alverca 1+ goals
66%
Alverca 2+ goals
29%
Alverca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
60%
Alverca (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felgueiras 1932 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.77 · 44 matches

Alverca away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.24 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.48 + Alverca defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.36

Alverca attack 1.38 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Felgueiras 1932 scores more
43%
level
27%
Alverca scores more
29%

Felgueiras 1932 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Felgueiras 1932 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felgueiras 1932 vs Alverca

Felgueiras 1932 and Alverca drew 1-1 in Liga 3 on February 24, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Dr. Machado de Matos in Felgueiras.