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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs SC Landskron — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
2 – 1
SC Landskron
SC Landskron
8/26/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 7Modehaus NIMO-ARENA Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten50%
×Draw22%
SC Landskron27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.90
SC Landskron
1.35

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 41% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
SC Landskron
1.39

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
SC Landskron
2.35

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
SC Landskron+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

SC Landskron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
73%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or SC Landskron
78%
Draw or SC Landskron
50%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
28%
SC Landskron wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
85%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
56%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
29%
SC Landskron 1+ goals
74%
SC Landskron 2+ goals
39%
SC Landskron 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
65%
SC Landskron (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

SC Landskron away — creates 1.39, concedes 2.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + SC Landskron defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.90

SC Landskron attack 1.39 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
50%
level
22%
SC Landskron scores more
27%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feldkirchen Kärnten 2 – 1 SC Landskron

Feldkirchen Kärnten beat SC Landskron 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 26, 2022.

The match was played at Modehaus NIMO-ARENA Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.