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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Ferlach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
1 – 1
Ferlach
Ferlach
9/25/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 9Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten46%
×Draw25%
Ferlach29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.60
Ferlach
1.23

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 30% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 92 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Ferlach
1.16

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Ferlach
1.76

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Ferlach+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Ferlach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
71%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Ferlach
75%
Draw or Ferlach
54%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
24%
Ferlach wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
80%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
47%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
22%
Ferlach 1+ goals
71%
Ferlach 2+ goals
35%
Ferlach 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
61%
Ferlach (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Ferlach away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.76 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Ferlach defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.60

Ferlach attack 1.16 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
46%
level
25%
Ferlach scores more
29%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Ferlach

Feldkirchen Kärnten and Ferlach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 25, 2020.

The match was played at Sportplatz Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.