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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Dellach im Gailtal — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
CANC
21:00
Dellach im Gailtal
Dellach im Gailtal
5/24/2020Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 27Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten38%
×Draw23%
Dellach im Gailtal39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.64
Dellach im Gailtal
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 62 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Dellach im Gailtal
2.05

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Dellach im Gailtal
1.82

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Dellach im Gailtal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Dellach im Gailtal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
61%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Dellach im Gailtal
77%
Draw or Dellach im Gailtal
62%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
19%
Dellach im Gailtal wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
81%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
49%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
23%
Dellach im Gailtal 1+ goals
81%
Dellach im Gailtal 2+ goals
50%
Dellach im Gailtal 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
49%
Dellach im Gailtal (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Dellach im Gailtal away — creates 2.05, concedes 1.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Dellach im Gailtal defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.64

Dellach im Gailtal attack 2.05 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
38%
level
23%
Dellach im Gailtal scores more
39%

Dellach im Gailtal at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Dellach im Gailtal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Feldkirchen Kärnten host Dellach im Gailtal

May 24, 2020: Feldkirchen Kärnten take on Dellach im Gailtal in Landesliga - Karnten. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Feldkirchen Kärnten host Dellach im Gailtal at Sportplatz Feldkirchen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.