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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Austria Klagenfurt II — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
0 – 1
Austria Klagenfurt II
Austria Klagenfurt II
4/21/2023Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 26Modehaus NIMO-ARENA Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten41%
×Draw25%
Austria Klagenfurt II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.48
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.34

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 10% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 60 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.38

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Austria Klagenfurt II
1.50

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Austria Klagenfurt II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
66%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Austria Klagenfurt II
75%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt II
59%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
20%
Austria Klagenfurt II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
77%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
43%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
19%
Austria Klagenfurt II 1+ goals
74%
Austria Klagenfurt II 2+ goals
39%
Austria Klagenfurt II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
54%
Austria Klagenfurt II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Austria Klagenfurt II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.50 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Austria Klagenfurt II defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Austria Klagenfurt II attack 1.38 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
41%
level
25%
Austria Klagenfurt II scores more
34%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feldkirchen Kärnten 0 – 1 Austria Klagenfurt II

Austria Klagenfurt II beat Feldkirchen Kärnten 1-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 21, 2023.

The match was played at Modehaus NIMO-ARENA Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.