Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Austria Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
3 – 1
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
9/20/2019Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 9Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten42%
×Draw25%
Austria Klagenfurt33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.51
Austria Klagenfurt
1.33

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 14% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 28 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Austria Klagenfurt
1.36

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Austria Klagenfurt
1.57

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
67%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Austria Klagenfurt
75%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt
58%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
20%
Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
78%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
44%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
19%
Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
74%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
38%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
55%
Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.57 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.36 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
42%
level
25%
Austria Klagenfurt scores more
33%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feldkirchen Kärnten 3 – 1 Austria Klagenfurt

Feldkirchen Kärnten beat Austria Klagenfurt 3-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on September 20, 2019.

The match was played at Sportplatz Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.