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Austria Klagenfurt vs Feldkirchen Kärnten — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
CANC
21:00
Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
4/25/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Sportplatz KAC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt39%
×Draw24%
Feldkirchen Kärnten36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.52
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 29 home / 47 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.24
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.21

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.81

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Feldkirchen Kärnten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
64%
Austria Klagenfurt or Feldkirchen Kärnten
76%
Draw or Feldkirchen Kärnten
61%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
19%
Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
78%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
45%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
20%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
77%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
43%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
52%
Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.24 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.52

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.21 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
39%
level
24%
Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
36%

Austria Klagenfurt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Austria Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Klagenfurt face Feldkirchen Kärnten (Landesliga - Karnten)

Landesliga - Karnten returns with Austria Klagenfurt hosting Feldkirchen Kärnten. Match starts April 25, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Klagenfurt host Feldkirchen Kärnten at Sportplatz KAC.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.