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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs ASK Klagenfurt — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
2 – 1
ASK Klagenfurt
ASK Klagenfurt
8/20/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 6Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten36%
×Draw24%
ASK Klagenfurt40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.53
ASK Klagenfurt
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 33 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
ASK Klagenfurt
1.94

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
ASK Klagenfurt
1.61

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
60%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or ASK Klagenfurt
76%
Draw or ASK Klagenfurt
64%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
17%
ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
78%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
45%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
20%
ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals
80%
ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals
48%
ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
47%
ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.53

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
36%
level
24%
ASK Klagenfurt scores more
40%

ASK Klagenfurt at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feldkirchen Kärnten vs ASK Klagenfurt

Feldkirchen Kärnten beat ASK Klagenfurt 2-1 in Landesliga - Karnten on August 20, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.