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Feldkirchen Kärnten vs Admira Villach — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Feldkirchen Kärnten
Feldkirchen Kärnten
FT
0 – 2
Admira Villach
Admira Villach
4/8/2022Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 22Sportplatz Feldkirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Feldkirchen Kärnten62%
×Draw20%
Admira Villach18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feldkirchen Kärnten
2.25
Admira Villach
1.13

Feldkirchen Kärnten creates 99% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 17 away

creates per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.45
Admira Villach
0.94

allows per match

Feldkirchen Kärnten
1.31
Admira Villach
3.06

finishing

Feldkirchen Kärnten+0.00on par
Admira Villach+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feldkirchen Kärnten ↓

Admira Villach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Feldkirchen Kärnten or draw
82%
Feldkirchen Kärnten or Admira Villach
80%
Draw or Admira Villach
38%

Winning margin

Feldkirchen Kärnten wins by 2+
40%
Admira Villach wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Feldkirchen Kärnten 1+ goals
89%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 2+ goals
65%
Feldkirchen Kärnten 3+ goals
39%
Admira Villach 1+ goals
68%
Admira Villach 2+ goals
31%
Admira Villach 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Feldkirchen Kärnten (draw refunded)
77%
Admira Villach (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feldkirchen Kärnten at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.31 · 49 matches

Admira Villach away — creates 0.94, concedes 3.06 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feldkirchen Kärnten attack 1.45 + Admira Villach defence 3.06 → ÷2 → 2.25

Admira Villach attack 0.94 + Feldkirchen Kärnten defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Feldkirchen Kärnten scores more
62%
level
20%
Admira Villach scores more
18%

Feldkirchen Kärnten at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Feldkirchen Kärnten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Karnten: Feldkirchen Kärnten 0–2 Admira Villach

Admira Villach beat Feldkirchen Kärnten 2-0 in Landesliga - Karnten on April 8, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Feldkirchen in Feldkirchen.