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Felanitx vs Son Veri — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Son Veri
Son Veri
2/5/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 28Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Felanitx73%
×Draw16%
Son Veri10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
2.47
Son Veri
0.81

Felanitx creates 205% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 20 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Son Veri
0.40

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Son Veri
3.65

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Son Veri+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Son Veri →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
90%
Felanitx or Son Veri
84%
Draw or Son Veri
27%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
51%
Son Veri wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
91%
Felanitx 2+ goals
70%
Felanitx 3+ goals
44%
Son Veri 1+ goals
56%
Son Veri 2+ goals
19%
Son Veri 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
88%
Son Veri (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Son Veri away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.65 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Son Veri defence 3.65 → ÷2 → 2.47

Son Veri attack 0.40 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Felanitx scores more
73%
level
16%
Son Veri scores more
10%

Felanitx at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Felanitx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Felanitx 4–0 Son Veri

Felanitx beat Son Veri 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on February 5, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.