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Felanitx vs Murense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Murense
Murense
10/6/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 6Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Felanitx53%
×Draw25%
Murense22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
1.59
Murense
0.94

Felanitx creates 69% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 20 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Murense
0.65

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Murense
1.90

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Murense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Murense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
78%
Felanitx or Murense
75%
Draw or Murense
47%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
28%
Murense wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
80%
Felanitx 2+ goals
47%
Felanitx 3+ goals
21%
Murense 1+ goals
61%
Murense 2+ goals
24%
Murense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
70%
Murense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Murense away — creates 0.65, concedes 1.90 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Murense defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.59

Murense attack 0.65 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Felanitx scores more
53%
level
25%
Murense scores more
22%

Felanitx at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Felanitx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felanitx vs Murense

Felanitx beat Murense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.