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Felanitx vs Migjorn — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Migjorn
Migjorn
10/26/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 8Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Felanitx66%
×Draw20%
Migjorn13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
2.00
Migjorn
0.76

Felanitx creates 163% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 17 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Migjorn
0.29

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Migjorn
2.71

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Migjorn+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Migjorn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
87%
Felanitx or Migjorn
80%
Draw or Migjorn
34%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
41%
Migjorn wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
86%
Felanitx 2+ goals
59%
Felanitx 3+ goals
32%
Migjorn 1+ goals
53%
Migjorn 2+ goals
18%
Migjorn 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
83%
Migjorn (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Migjorn away — creates 0.29, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Migjorn defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.00

Migjorn attack 0.29 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Felanitx scores more
66%
level
20%
Migjorn scores more
13%

Felanitx at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Felanitx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Felanitx vs Migjorn

Felanitx beat Migjorn 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.