Felanitx 1–2 Ferriolense: Result & Stats

Felanitx

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ferriolense

11/9/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 12Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Felanitx49%

×Draw25%

Ferriolense27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FelanitxExpected goals in this matchFerriolense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.14

Felanitx

1.63

Ferriolense

1.14

Felanitx creates 43% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

1.29

creates per match

1.04

1.23

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Felanitx

1.29

Ferriolense

1.04

allows per match

Felanitx

1.23

Ferriolense

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par

Ferriolense+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Ferriolense →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw

73%

Felanitx or Ferriolense

75%

Draw or Ferriolense

51%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+

26%

Ferriolense wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals

80%

Felanitx 2+ goals

48%

Felanitx 3+ goals

22%

Ferriolense 1+ goals

68%

Ferriolense 2+ goals

32%

Ferriolense 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)

65%

Ferriolense (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Ferriolense away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Ferriolense defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.63

Ferriolense attack 1.04 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Felanitx scores more

49%

level

25%

Ferriolense scores more

27%

Felanitx at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Felanitx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff