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Felanitx vs Esporles — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Esporles
Esporles
6/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 2nd Phase - 9Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Felanitx57%
×Draw24%
Esporles19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
1.74
Esporles
0.90

Felanitx creates 93% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 28 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Esporles
0.57

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Esporles
2.18

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Esporles+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Esporles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
81%
Felanitx or Esporles
76%
Draw or Esporles
43%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
32%
Esporles wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
82%
Felanitx 2+ goals
52%
Felanitx 3+ goals
25%
Esporles 1+ goals
59%
Esporles 2+ goals
23%
Esporles 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
75%
Esporles (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Esporles away — creates 0.57, concedes 2.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Esporles defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Esporles attack 0.57 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Felanitx scores more
57%
level
24%
Esporles scores more
19%

Felanitx at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Felanitx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11: Felanitx 3–0 Esporles

Felanitx beat Esporles 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 on June 12, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Es Torrentó in Mallorca.