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Felanitx vs Andratx — Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 2019

Felanitx
Felanitx
CANC
00:00
Andratx
Andratx
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 11Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 · Group 11 - 34Estadio Es Torrentó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Felanitx31%
×Draw25%
Andratx44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Felanitx
1.25
Andratx
1.52

Andratx creates 22% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 41 away

creates per match

Felanitx
1.29
Andratx
1.80

allows per match

Felanitx
1.23
Andratx
1.22

finishing

Felanitx+0.00on par
Andratx+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Felanitx ↓

Andratx →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Felanitx or draw
56%
Felanitx or Andratx
75%
Draw or Andratx
69%

Winning margin

Felanitx wins by 2+
13%
Andratx wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Felanitx 1+ goals
71%
Felanitx 2+ goals
36%
Felanitx 3+ goals
13%
Andratx 1+ goals
78%
Andratx 2+ goals
45%
Andratx 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Felanitx (draw refunded)
42%
Andratx (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Felanitx at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.23 · 100 matches

Andratx away — creates 1.80, concedes 1.22 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Felanitx attack 1.29 + Andratx defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.25

Andratx attack 1.80 + Felanitx defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Felanitx scores more
31%
level
25%
Andratx scores more
44%

Andratx at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Andratx will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Felanitx face Andratx (Tercera División RFEF - Group 11)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 returns with Felanitx hosting Andratx. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Felanitx host Andratx at Estadio Es Torrentó.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.