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Feirense vs Vitoria Setubal — Primeira Liga 2018

Feirense
Feirense
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
4/1/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 27Estádio Marcolino de Castro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Feirense33%
×Draw27%
Vitoria Setubal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.20
Vitoria Setubal
1.35

Vitoria Setubal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 37 away

creates per match

Feirense
1.12
Vitoria Setubal
0.89

allows per match

Feirense
1.82
Vitoria Setubal
1.27

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Vitoria Setubal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Vitoria Setubal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
60%
Feirense or Vitoria Setubal
73%
Draw or Vitoria Setubal
67%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
14%
Vitoria Setubal wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
70%
Feirense 2+ goals
34%
Feirense 3+ goals
12%
Vitoria Setubal 1+ goals
74%
Vitoria Setubal 2+ goals
39%
Vitoria Setubal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
45%
Vitoria Setubal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

Vitoria Setubal away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.27 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.12 + Vitoria Setubal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Vitoria Setubal attack 0.89 + Feirense defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Feirense scores more
33%
level
27%
Vitoria Setubal scores more
40%

Vitoria Setubal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vitoria Setubal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Feirense 0–1 Vitoria Setubal

Vitoria Setubal beat Feirense 1-0 in Primeira Liga on April 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Marcolino de Castro in Santa Maria da Feira.