Feirense 1–2 Vitoria Da Conquista: Result & Stats

Feirense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Vitoria Da Conquista

7/7/2024

Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Feirense27%

×Draw28%

Vitoria Da Conquista45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FeirenseExpected goals in this matchVitoria Da Conquista

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.33

Feirense

0.96

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.33

Vitoria Da Conquista creates 39% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 18 away

0.75

creates per match

1.28

1.38

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Feirense

0.75

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.28

allows per match

Feirense

1.38

Vitoria Da Conquista

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par

Vitoria Da Conquista+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Vitoria Da Conquista →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Feirense or draw

55%

Feirense or Vitoria Da Conquista

72%

Draw or Vitoria Da Conquista

73%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+

10%

Vitoria Da Conquista wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals

62%

Feirense 2+ goals

25%

Feirense 3+ goals

7%

Vitoria Da Conquista 1+ goals

74%

Vitoria Da Conquista 2+ goals

38%

Vitoria Da Conquista 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)

37%

Vitoria Da Conquista (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Vitoria Da Conquista away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 0.75 + Vitoria Da Conquista defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.96

Vitoria Da Conquista attack 1.28 + Feirense defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Feirense scores more

27%

level

28%

Vitoria Da Conquista scores more

45%

Vitoria Da Conquista at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vitoria Da Conquista will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff