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Feirense vs Felgueiras 1932 — Segunda Liga 2018

Feirense
Feirense
Preview
15:00
Felgueiras 1932
Felgueiras 1932
8/9/2026Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 1Estadio Marcolino de Castro
41%
Feirense
model favours
41%28%31%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Feirense41%
×Draw28%
Felgueiras 193231%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.07

Feirense creates 21% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 34 away

creates per match

Feirense
1.31
Felgueiras 1932
1.15

allows per match

Feirense
0.99
Felgueiras 1932
1.26

finishing

Feirense+0.00on par
Felgueiras 1932+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense ↓

Felgueiras 1932 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Feirense or draw
69%
Feirense or Felgueiras 1932
72%
Draw or Felgueiras 1932
59%

Winning margin

Feirense wins by 2+
19%
Felgueiras 1932 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Feirense 1+ goals
72%
Feirense 2+ goals
37%
Feirense 3+ goals
14%
Felgueiras 1932 1+ goals
66%
Felgueiras 1932 2+ goals
29%
Felgueiras 1932 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Feirense (draw refunded)
57%
Felgueiras 1932 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 111 matches

Felgueiras 1932 away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense attack 1.31 + Felgueiras 1932 defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Felgueiras 1932 attack 1.15 + Feirense defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Feirense scores more
41%
level
28%
Felgueiras 1932 scores more
31%

Feirense at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Feirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Feirense
Balanced
Felgueiras 1932
Balanced
46%PossessionBiggest gap54%
70%Pass accuracy76%
8.9Shots9.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
FeirenseFelgueiras 1932

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Feirense
2
Draws
1
Felgueiras 1932
Avg goals: 1.8BTTS: 25%
0–00–23–20–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Feirense
DDLWD
1932
DDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Feirense vs Felgueiras 1932 — Match Preview

Feirense face Felgueiras 1932 on August 9, 2026 in this Segunda Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Feirense host Felgueiras 1932 at Estadio Marcolino de Castro.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.